Onderwerp: Above Average 2013 Hurricane Season Expected

Above Average 2013 Hurricane Season Expected

An above-average number of storms will emerge from the Atlantic this hurricane season, and the odds of the U.S. being hit by a major system are about 70 percent greater than predicted last year, Colorado State University researchers said. Eighteen named storms will develop in 2013, the CSU forecasters said today in their initial seasonal outlook. Nine of the systems are expected to become hurricanes, four of them major systems of Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour.
The CSU team estimated the chances of a major hurricane strike on the U.S. this year at 72 percent, compared with 42 percent last year.Sandy, which devastated parts of New York and New Jersey in October, had winds of Category 1 level.
“We think we will have a pretty active season here,” said William Gray, professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Fort Collins, Colorado, university, who pioneered long-range hurricane forecasting 30 years ago. “Things are just
looking good.” Atlantic hurricanes are watched closely because of their threat to major U.S. population centers and to the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is home to 7 percent of U.S. natural gas output, 23 percent of oil production and 44 percent of refining capacity, according to the Energy Department.
Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist with Weather 2000 Inc. in New York, said he agreed with Colorado State’s assessment that the season will be active. What’s more important is where the storms will go, and that can’t be determined this far in advance, he said by telephone. Active Seasons
For the past three years, the Atlantic has spawned 19 storms each season, tying with 1995 and 1887 as the third-most active period in records going back to 1851. The 28 storms in 2005, which included Hurricane Katrina, were the most.
The odds of a major storm strike on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, are 48 percent this year, compared with the 20th-century average of 31 percent, the CSU team said. The Gulf Coast has a 47 percent chance, compared with the average of 30 percent. While a major storm hasn’t hit the U.S. in more than seven years, the U.S. sustained severe blows from Irene in 2011 and Isaac and Sandy last year.

Bron: Bloomberg.

Nou Erik, nog maar een extra ankertje erbij kopen?

"above average", dat is gewoon 50% kans....

beetje flauwe voorspelling....

Hoi Jugo
Nou gooi je je eigen handel in...
Ik wacht nog maar ff met het modem!

Maar het mag dan een beetje overtrokken zijn, weer voorspellen blijft in een glazenbol kijken. Ik denk zelf dat met de opwarming van de aarde en kleine veranderingen in vaste zeestromingen/temperaturen en weerpatronen
Dat het altijd voorspelbare en jaarlijks terug komende vaste patroon
aan verandering onderhevig is.
zo ook deze stormen.
maar zover vooruit voorspellen is wel sterk

kijk nu het mooie voorspelde weer van vandaag.. je kijkt uit het raam
regen striemt tegen de ramen er waait hier 6 Bft de boot hangt in de touwen, de hond kijkt mij al aan!
en het is nog lang.. geen 18 graden!
lokatie Enkhuizen 08.15

Ron